Turbidites embedded in lacustrine sediment sequences are commonly used to reconstruct regional flood or earthquake histories. A critical step for this method to be successful is that turbidites and their trigger mechanisms are determined unambiguously. The latter is particularly challenging for prehistoric proglacial lake records in high-seismicity settings where both earthquake-generated and flood-generated turbidites interrupt the background varved sedimentation. This calls for a new method to allow efficient and objective identification and classification of turbidites. This study examined turbidites in five long (9 to 17 m) sediment cores from Eklutna Lake, a proglacial lake in south-central Alaska, using standard core logging and grain-size data. A novel statistical approach is presented, in which varve-thickness distributions were first analyzed to objectively identify the thickest turbidites and distinguish them from background sedimentation. For each turbidite, a selection of variables were then measured, including: basal grain-size, thickness, magnetic susceptibility and spectrophotometric variables. Triggering mechanisms were discriminated by a combination of principal component analysis and clustering, and by calibration with historical events. Using this approach, a 2250 year long lake-wide event stratigraphy was constructed, with 94 prehistoric events, including 24 earthquake and 70 flood events. Basal grain-size and thickness variables turn out to be the most effective proxies for discrimination. This statistical approach is a powerful and new method to identify turbidites and their triggering mechanisms in long prehistoric sediment records. It opens up new prospects for palaeoseismological, palaeohydrological and palaeoclimate studies in proglacial lakes worldwide. 相似文献
This paper describes the structure of the LAND USE SCANNER model, a GIS based model developed to generate spatial forecasts
for various types of land use for a large number of grids. The model basically allocates land according to bid prices for
various types of land use. The possibility of government intervention in land use is taken into account among others by adding
aggregate constraints. The model includes all relevant land use types such as residential, industrial, agricultural, natural
areas and water. The model is driven by sectoral models providing forecasts of aggregate land use in various land use categories.
An application of the first version of the model is given for the Netherlands with some 200,000 grid cells. Further developments
and refinements of the model are planned for the near future.
Received: 18 February 1998/Accepted: 29 September 1998 相似文献
Saw-tooth bars are shore-oblique sand bars that are found along most ebb-tidal deltas of the Frisian Wadden Islands. Although they might significantly affect sediment transport pathways and volumes on the deltas, their general characteristics and dynamics are largely unknown. The main aim of this paper is to determine the typical saw-tooth bar heights, wave lengths, widths, orientations, migration rates and depths of occurrence. To this end, we analysed bathymetries from the Dutch and German Frisian Wadden Islands between 1970 and 2015. Bar heights range between 0.5 and 2 m, and wave lengths range between 300 and 900 m, with an average of 670 m, and the bar crests have a down contour orientation of approximately 25°. The bars are between 800 and 2200 m wide. Saw-tooth bars are located at depths from 3 to 12 m, depending on the slope of the area. Migration speeds of up to 112 m/year were found, using a spatial correlation method. Bar height and migration speed are positively linearly correlated, as well as bar wave length and bar width, bar height and the orientation of the depth contours and migration speed and the orientation of the area. The derived characteristics are compared to those of other bar types to evaluate hypotheses regarding the formation mechanism of the bars.
Ocean Dynamics - Ebb-tidal deltas are shallow features seaward of tidal inlets, acting as a wave filter for the nearby barrier island and a source of sediment for the landward tidal basin. On many... 相似文献
Cosmological simulations suggest that dark matter haloes are not spherical, but typically moderately to strongly triaxial systems. We investigate methods to convert spherical potential–density pairs into axisymmetric ones, in which the basic characteristics of the density profile (such as the slope at small and large radii) are retained. We achieve this goal by replacing the spherical radius r by an oblate radius m in the expression of the gravitational potential Φ( r ) . We extend and formalize the approach pioneered by Miyamoto & Nagai to be applicable to arbitrary potential–density pairs. Unfortunately, an asymptotic study demonstrates that, at large radii, such models always show a R −3 disc superposed on a smooth roughly spherical density distribution. As a result, this recipe cannot be used to construct simple flattened potential–density pairs for dynamical systems such as dark matter haloes. Therefore, we apply a modification of our original recipe that cures the problem of the discy behaviour. An asymptotic analysis now shows that the density distribution has the desired asymptotic behaviour at large radii (if the density falls less rapidly than r −4 ). We also show that the flattening procedure does not alter the shape of the density distribution at small radii: while the inner density contours are flattened, the slope of the density profile is unaltered. We apply this recipe to construct a set of flattened dark matter haloes based on the realistic spherical halo models by Dehnen & McLaughlin. This example illustrates that the method works fine for modest flattening values, whereas stronger flattening values lead to peanut-shaped density distributions. 相似文献
Limiting climate change to 2 °C with a high probability requires reducing cumulative emissions to about 1600 GtCO2 over the 2000–2100 period. This requires unprecedented rates of decarbonization even in the short-run. The availability of the option of net negative emissions, such as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or reforestation/afforestation, allows to delay some of these emission reductions. In the paper, we assess the demand and potential for negative emissions in particular from BECCS. Both stylized calculations and model runs show that without the possibility of negative emissions, pathways meeting the 2 °C target with high probability need almost immediate emission reductions or simply become infeasible. The potential for negative emissions is uncertain. We show that negative emissions from BECCS are probably limited to around 0 to 10 GtCO2/year in 2050 and 0 to 20 GtCO2/year in 2100. Estimates on the potential of afforestation options are in the order of 0–4 GtCO2/year. Given the importance and the uncertainty concerning BECCS, we stress the importance of near-term assessments of its availability as today’s decisions has important consequences for climate change mitigation in the long run. 相似文献